The Numbers Game: Liverpool close in on title as shaky Spurs visit Anfield

It has been something of a procession for Liverpool, who are 12 points clear at the summit and know a draw will be enough against Tottenham on Sunday to get the job done.

Arne Slot is set to become the first Dutch coach to win the Premier League, while he will be just the fifth boss to claim the title in his debut season, after Jose Mourinho (2004-05), Carlo Ancelotti (2009-10), Manuel Pellegrini (2013-14) and Antonio Conte (2016-17).

The Reds have been dominant this season, and while the likes of Arsenal and Manchester City have lacked the consistency they have demonstrated in recent seasons, that should take nothing away from what Slot has achieved.

Matters could hardly be more different for Spurs, though.

Ange Postecoglou bullishly promised to win a trophy this season, and while that could still happen – Spurs are into the semi-finals of the Europa League – his team sit 16th in the league.

They are, of course, way clear of any danger, but that says more about the lack of quality of the bottom three than it does about Spurs.

Here, we delve into the key pre-match facts.

This is the fourth meeting between these teams this season.

Spurs have already shipped 10 goals across those matches, losing 6-3 in the Premier League and 4-0 in the EFL Cup, with a 1-0 win coming in the first leg of that semi-final tie.

They last conceded more against an opponent in 2013-14 (11 vs Manchester City), while the most they have conceded in a single season is 14 (vs Chelsea in 2001-02).

Spurs have won just two of their last 24 Premier League games against Liverpool (D6 L16), with both victories coming at home. They have also failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 18 against the Reds in the competition.

Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 15 home games against Tottenham in all competitions (W11 D4), winning the last three while scoring four goals each time.

So, it is no surprise that Opta's model makes Liverpool overwhelming favourites, with the Reds handed a 71.2% win probability.

Spurs' chances are ranked at a meagre 12.6%, while the chance of a draw – which would be enough to see Liverpool win the title – is 16.2%.

Liverpool have lost just two league games this season. Their first defeat came at home to Nottingham Forest in September, while their second came to Fulham at Craven Cottage on April 6.

Even in that most recent defeat, the Reds could consider themselves somewhat unfortunate – they finished with 14 shots, getting six on target (matching Fulham's tally) and generating 1.5 expected goals to their opponents' 0.74.

Slot has averaged 2.39 points per game in the league this season. To put that into perspective, only three of his eight full seasons in charge did Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool average more points per game than Slot's Reds have so far this term - in 2021-22 (2.42), 2019-20 (2.60) and 2018-19 (2.55).

With five games remaining, Liverpool have already won as many Premier League games this season as they did last term (24), while victory in this game would also see them equal their points tally from last season (82) with four games to go.

They would also become just the seventh team to win the title with four or more matches remaining.

Liverpool have scored at least once in each of their last 29 Premier League games, since that 1-0 loss to Forest in September. It is the second-longest scoring streak in a single campaign, after Arsenal, who scored in all 38 games in 2001-02.

Goals from Hendo and Mo complete the comeback against Spurs #LIVTOT 19/20 pic.twitter.com/CN7dQNxbKu

— Liverpool FC (@LFC) April 24, 2025

The Reds have scored 75 goals – nine more than any other team – from a league-leading 73.37 expected goals.

No team has created (97) or scored (52) as many big chances as Liverpool, either, while at the other end, they have kept 14 clean sheets, more than any other team.

They are certainly worthy champions.

The gulf between these teams has perhaps not been as big in the Premier League era.

Spurs are 42 points behind Liverpool (79) coming into this match.

It is the second highest number of points Spurs have been behind a side they are facing – they were 43 behind Arsenal when they met at White Hart Lane in April 2004, with the Gunners securing the title against them that day.

So, there really is not much but pride to play for, and Postecoglou will almost certainly look to rest his key players, with this game coming just four days before the first leg of Spurs' Europa League semi-final first leg against Bodo/Glimt.

Spurs have lost 18 Premier League games this season. They have only lost more in 1993-94 and 2003-04 (19 both times), while they are at risk of matching, or even finishing lower than, their worst ever finish in the competition (15th).

Given what is at stake for Liverpool, and with Anfield sure to be in great voice, it could be a case of damage limitation for Postecoglou.

In a grim omen, though, Spurs have the fourth-worst expected goals against in the league this season (54.25) - the only sides that have conceded a higher xGA are the bottom three.

Liverpool's attackers, then, should be licking their lips.

Record-chasing Salah has scored 15 goals against Spurs in all competitions, only netting more against Manchester United (16) in his European club career.

Eleven of those 15 goals have come in the Premier League, with only Alan Shearer (14) netting more against Spurs in the competition.

Salah is on 45 goal involvements in the league this term, meaning he still needs three more to set the new single-season Premier League record. The Egyptian is only eight goals and assists away from matching Wayne Rooney's record as the player with the most goal involvements for one club (276 for Man Utd).

One hope Spurs may have is Richarlison, who netted in the 2-1 defeat to Nottingham Forest on Monday.

Richarlison has scored in four of his last five Premier League appearances (four goals), though Tottenham have lost all four of these games. Indeed, only Matheus Cunha (five) has scored in more defeats than Richarlison this term.