The Numbers Game: Liverpool eyeing response with Salah in a slump

A penalty shoot-out defeat to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League represented a reality check, but a meek EFL Cup final loss to Newcastle United was the low point of their season.

And after weeks of speculation regarding Trent Alexander-Arnold's likely move to Real Madrid, they suffered just their second league defeat under Slot last Sunday, going down 3-2 to Fulham at Craven Cottage.

A maximum of 11 more points are required for Liverpool to clinch the title, but Slot will not want their triumphant campaign to end on a flat note.

The Reds return to Anfield on Sunday, with out-of-form West Ham the visitors. Ahead of the game, we look at the best Opta data surrounding both teams.

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The Opta supercomputer makes Liverpool huge favourites for this one, with a 67.5% win probability.

Across our 10,000 pre-match simulations, West Ham only triumphed in 14.7% of scenarios, with 17.8% finishing level.

The Hammers have not had much joy when visiting the Red side of Merseyside lately. Liverpool have lost just one of their last 57 games against West Ham at Anfield in all competitions. They have won 42 those matches (14 draws), including the last nine in a row.

Since doing the double over Liverpool back in 2015-16, West Ham have only won one of their last 17 Premier League matches against the Reds (three draws, 13 defeats) – a 3-2 triumph at the London Stadium in November 2021.

As well as taking a step towards the title, Slot's side have the chance to create a piece of history.

Liverpool have already beaten West Ham 5-1 in the EFL Cup and 5-0 in the Premier League this season. No English top-flight team has ever scored five or more goals against another on three occasions within the same campaign.

Much like Liverpool as a team, Mohamed Salah is in danger of seeing a spectacular campaign tail off somewhat.

Salah has surely got the Premier League's Player of the Season award in the bag, having registered 44 goal involvements in 2024-25 (27 goals and 17 assists) – the joint-most by any player in a 38-game campaign, alongside Thierry Henry in 2002-03 and Erling Haaland in 2022-23.

With seven games remaining, it appears almost certain the Egyptian will overhaul the single-season record of 47, held jointly by Andy Cole (for Newcastle United in 1993-94) and Alan Shearer (for Blackburn Rovers in 1994-95).

Salah matched the 38-game mark by scoring two penalties in a 3-1 win over Southampton on March 8, but since that match, he has not provided a single goal or assist in four outings across all competitions.

It is his longest run without a goal involvement for the club since March 2021 (also four). Only in March 2019 has he gone five appearances without a goal or assist for the Reds.

His ongoing drought consists of the defeats to PSG and Newcastle that derailed Liverpool's hopes of a treble, as well as a narrow derby win over Everton and last week's loss to Fulham.

Salah has averaged 1.39 shots, 0.46 shots on target and 0.25 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes in this spell, having managed 3.62 shots, 1.81 shots on target and 0.72 xG per game between the start of the season and the first game in this run.

And it's not as if Salah has been providing for his team-mates, either, only averaging 0.93 chances created and 0.09 expected assists (xA) in his last four games, having previously averaged 2.2 chances created and 0.25 xA this season.

Perhaps the absence of regular right-back Alexander-Arnold has starved Salah of service.

Curtis Jones started behind Salah at Craven Cottage last week before moving into midfield, but he only completed three passes to the Egyptian, a tally beaten by Conor Bradley after he was introduced in the 67th minute (four).

With Alexander-Arnold still battling an ankle issue, Bradley could be handed a start on Sunday.

Graham Potter's January arrival at the London Stadium was supposed to herald a new dawn for West Ham's frustrated fanbase.

While David Moyes brought success but – in the eyes of many fans – boredom, Julen Lopetegui's brief spell in charge only brought the latter.

Potter arrived with a reputation for coaching a free-flowing, modern brand of football, built over three happy years with Brighton. But since he joined West Ham, they have dropped off further in most attacking metrics.

They have averaged a marginally higher possession share in their 12 league games under Potter (48.9%) than they did in 22 under Lopetegui (46.4%), but they have done precious little with that extra time on the ball.

Per Premier League game, Potter's West Ham are averaging fewer goals (one to 1.18), xG (0.94 to 1.39), shots (9.5 to 14.5) and shots on target (2.67 to 4.27) than Lopetegui's Hammers did.

Last week's home clash with Bournemouth brought an increase in the entertainment stakes as goals from Jarrod Bowen and Niclas Fullkrug put West Ham 2-1 up the second half, but they were unable to hold on for the victory and drew 2-2.

And in away games, only Everton (11), Southampton (12) and Leicester City (14) have scored fewer goals than the Hammers' 15 this season.

This is despite them only failing to net on two of their 15 road trips in the Premier League this season – it has not been a case of feast or famine, but of minor morsels of entertainment.

While injuries to Michail Antonio and Crysencio Summerville have limited Potter's attacking options, an improvement is surely required.

Mohammed Kudus was recalled last week, but is currently enduring his longest Premier League goal drought (13 matches), while Brighton loanee Evan Ferguson has gone 14 games in the competition without netting, six of them for West Ham.

However, Potter has fond memories of visiting Anfield, going unbeaten through his three Premier League trips there (one win, two draws), two with Brighton and one with Chelsea.

The last visiting manager to go unbeaten in four straight trips to Liverpool was Sam Allardyce, between 2016 and 2020.

Diaz has scored (once) or assisted (three times) a goal on each of his last four Premier League appearances for Liverpool, the longest ever run of goal involvements by a Colombian in the competition.

His four goal involvements in this span are as many as in his previous 17 league appearances, and his three assists as many as he had provided in his previous 34 games.

Bowen has been directly involved in six of West Ham's last seven goals against Liverpool in all competitions (three goals, three assists).