The Numbers Game: Inter out to dash PSG's treble hopes in Champions League showdown

Both of these teams have been Champions League runners-up in the last five years: PSG lost to Bayern Munich in 2020, while Inter were defeated by Manchester City in 2023.

PSG have arguably been Europe's best performers this season. Just as entertaining as free-scoring Barcelona, who lost out to Inter in the semi-finals to deny many onlookers the final they craved, Luis Enrique's team are in the hunt for a treble, having won the Coupe de France last weekend to follow up their Ligue 1 success.

This is Inter's seventh appearance in the European Cup/Champions League final, winning the trophy three times (1964, 1965 and 2010). They did lose their last final appearance, going down 1-0 against Man City in 2023, when Pep Guardiola's team won the treble.

On the flip side, this is just PSG's second appearance in the European Cup/Champions League final. They remain the last French side to win a major European trophy – the 1995-96 UEFA Cup Winners' Cup.

How Paris made it to Munich #UCLfinal pic.twitter.com/dNlC2WNfDF

— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) May 29, 2025

PSG have currently played the fourth-most games (167) without ever winning the European Cup/Champions League since it began in 1955, behind Arsenal (211), Dynamo Kyiv (185) and Atletico Madrid (176).

A win in this game would see them have the most games before winning their first trophy, with Man City the current most on 116, before they won their 117th game in the final against Inter in 2023.

It is somewhat surprising, then, that this is the first ever competitive meeting between Inter and PSG.

Here, we delve into the key Opta insights ahead of what promises to be an enthralling Champions League showdown.

This final not only brings up the maiden competitive encounter between PSG and Inter, but also marks the first meeting between Luis Enrique and Simone Inzaghi.

Both coaches have overseen 32 Champions League games across their careers, with Luis Enrique winning 20 matches and Inzaghi collecting 17 wins.

Inter are unbeaten in their last four matches against French opponents in Europe (W2 D2) since a 1-0 loss to Marseille in the 2011-12 Champions League last 16.

This is just the second European Cup/Champions League final between an Italian and a French side, after Marseille beat Milan 1-0 in 1993 – the only time a French club has ever won the trophy. That final was also held in Munich.

In fact, this will be the fifth European Cup/Champions League final to be held in Munich. The victors in each of the previous four won the trophy for the very first time, a run PSG are seeking to continue (Nottingham Forest in 1979, Marseille in 1993, Dortmund in 1997, Chelsea in 2012).

But, French clubs have only won two of their 15 major European finals (one out of seven in European Cup/Champions League, one out of three in UEFA Cup Winners' Cup and none in five attempts in the UEFA Cup/Europa League).

But Opta's supercomputer is not backing them to continue that run.

PSG come out on top in 44.6% of the pre-match simulations, while Inter won it in 90 minutes in 29%. The likelihood of a draw, meaning penalties would be required, is 26.4%.

The model gives PSG a 57% chance of lifting the trophy.

Of teams in Europe's top five leagues, only Barca (174) have scored more goals across all competitions than PSG (147), and it is just the Blaugrana who can boast a higher expected goals (xG) figure over the course of the campaign (145.3 to PSG's 142.5).

PSG top the charts for shots (1,074), shots on target (450) and big chances (280). Man City (2,239) are the only team to have more touches in the opposition box than PSG (2,207).

Luis Enrique won the Champions League with Barca in 2015, and is looking to become the sixth coach to win the trophy with two different clubs, after Carlo Ancelotti (Milan, Real Madrid), Ottmar Hitzfeld (Borussia Dortmund, Bayern), Jupp Heynckes (Real Madrid, Bayern Munich), Jose Mourinho (Porto and Inter) and Guardiola (Barcelona and Man City).

Indeed, that success with the Blaugrana a decade ago came as part of a treble, and Luis Enrique could become just the second coach, after Guardiola, to win a treble made up of the Champions League, a major domestic trophy and league title, with two different teams.

A good omen for PSG is that when Luis Enrique won the treble 10 years ago, his Barca team beat an Italian side – Juventus – in the final.

PSG have won 10 Champions League games this term (D1 L5) – the most victories of any French side in a single season across major European competition.

This season has seen PSG both win their most games (10) and score their most goals (33) in a single major European campaign.

They have also registered their most shots per game (18.6) in a Champions League season since 2003-04, when Opta began recording such data.

Ousmane Dembele has taken the headlines for his fearsome form, but this PSG side is a complete unit.

Gianluigi Donnarumma has come up with some huge saves throughout this campaign. He has kept five clean sheets in the Champions League, with only Mickael Landreau (seven in 2006-07) having recorded more shut-outs for PSG in a major European campaign.

Marquinhos has been integral in defence.

Only two players have completed more passes in this season’s Champions League than PSG's captain (1,051), who featured in the 2020 final defeat to Bayern.

The final could be his 107th appearance in the competition, with only Gianluigi Buffon and Zlatan Ibrahimovic (124 each) playing more games in Champions League history without winning the trophy.

Midfielders Vitinha and Joao Neves have been superb, too.

Vitinha has completed the most passes under high-intensity pressure from opponents (665) in this season's Champions League. He has also completed the most passes overall (1,222), with only Xavi in 2012-13 (1,299) and 2010-11 (1,244) ever completing more in a season on record since 2003-04.

Neves has applied the most high-intensity pressures to opponents in the Champions League (824) this term, while he has also made 57 tackles.

The only players on record to make more tackles in a season are Gennaro Gattuso (64 in 2006-07, 59 in 2007-08) and Javier Mascherano (70 in 2007-08).

But as they proved in their thrilling semi-final victory over Barca, Inter are no pushovers.

Inzaghi might have let the shackles off in those two legs against Hansi Flick's side, but Inter's success in the Champions League this term has largely been built on solid foundations.

They have kept eight clean sheets, more than any other team, conceding only 11 goals.

Integral to their defensive solidity has been the performance of Yann Sommer.

Based on the quality of shots on target faced (using xG), Sommer has prevented more goals than any other goalkeeper in the Champions League this season (+5.9 – 10 goals conceded from 15.9 xG on target faced, excluding own goals).

Sommer leads the way in the Champions League this season (out of goalkeepers) for clean sheets (seven). Only two shot-stoppers – Thibaut Courtois (52) and Emiliano Martinez (49) – have registered more saves in the competition this season than Sommer (48).

Their goalkeeper's reliability has certainly been a crucial factor for Inter, who have conceded a tournament-high 214 shots. Though their 17.3 xGA (expected goals against) shows they are, in the main, giving up low-quality opportunities. Indeed, the average xG of the shots Inter have faced is just 0.08.

Ahead of Sommer, veteran campaigner Francesco Acerbi has more than played his part.

Acerbi – who scored Inter's crucial late equaliser in the semi-final against Barca – could be the fourth oldest outfield player to start a Champions League final (37 years, 110 days), behind Paolo Maldini for Milan in 2007 (38 years, 331 days), Lothar Matthaus for Bayern in 1999 (38 years, 66 days) and Ryan Giggs for Manchester United in 2011 (37 years, 180 days).

Then there has been flying wing-back Denzel Dumfries, who was directly involved in five goals across the semi-final legs against Barca (two goals, three assists), as many goal contributions as in his 51 previous appearances in Europe.

Experience has been key for Inzaghi. Only Atletico (43.5%) have handed a higher share of minutes to players aged 30+ in the Champions League this season than Inter (43.3%), whose 6,151 minutes by players aged 30+ is the most by a team since Juventus in 2016-17 (6,186).

All of the 1,350 minutes PSG have given to players aged 30 or over have been accounted for by just one player (Marquinhos).

It has certainly worked. Inter have trailed for just 1.2% of their Champions League matches this season, falling behind in three games but never for more than 370 seconds in any of them – 285 seconds against Bayer Leverkusen in December, 370 against Bayern in April and 343 against Barca in May. They have also spent the highest percentage of their time winning (50.8%).

Not that it has been all about grinding out results.

Inter have scored 26 Champions League goals this season; their joint most ever in a major European season, also scoring 26 in 2002-03.

They have scored two or more goals in all six knockout games and could be the third side to score 2+ goals in every knockout game including the final in a season, along with Madrid in 1959-60 (seven games) and Milan in 1993-94 (two games).

It has been an incredible season for Dembele, who has been directly involved in 12 Champions League goals this season (eight goals, four assists); the most by a PSG player in one campaign, while only Ibrahimovic in 2013-14 (10) has scored more times in a single edition of the competition.

But it has not just been about goalscoring – Dembele has also been a creative force.

The most line-breaking passes from one player to another while breaking a defensive line in the Champions League this term have been from Dembele to raiding full-back Achraf Hakimi (13); six more than any other duo.

Overall, Dembele has created 35 chances this season, the most by a French player since Jerome Rothen in 2003-04 (45).

Inter's attacking talisman is Martinez, who sustained an injury in the semi-final and has since been wrapped in cotton wool by Inzaghi.

Martinez has scored in the last 16, quarter-finals and semi-finals. Only five players have scored in those stages plus the final in one season – Frank Lampard in 2007-08, Diego Milito in 2009-10, Lionel Messi in 2010-11, Cristiano Ronaldo in 2013-14 and Sadio Mane in 2017-18.