The Numbers Game: Forest aim to get Champions League push back on track

Forest are still chasing a Champions League place, with the race for European football heating up in a tight top half of the table.

Their grip on third place slipped after recent defeats, and with Newcastle United surging above them in midweek, Forest need to get back to winning ways on Monday.

Meanwhile, Spurs are aiming to salvage some pride after a tumultuous season that has seen Ange Postecoglou come under increasing pressure.

Their hopes of winning silverware are still alive after booking their place in the Europa League semi-final on Thursday – a result that has marginally eased some of the scrutiny on the Australian.

However, with time running out to avoid a lowly finish in the Premier League, Spurs will be keen to find some momentum heading into the last six games of the season.

Here, using Opta data, we delve into the key insights ahead of Monday's clash at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Given the gulf between these two sides in the table, Forest would likely be expected to come out on top in Monday's meeting.

However, they have struggled of late, as have Spurs, who are in desperate need of a win if they want to end their season on a high.

Tottenham have won each of their last three home league games against Forest, having won just one of their previous 11 against them prior (D2 L8).

And Spurs did win their last home outing, sealing Southampton's fate with a 3-1 victory earlier this month.

Forest's 1-0 win in the reverse fixture ended a six-game losing streak against Spurs in the Premier League. They last did the league double over them in the 1996-97 campaign, winning this exact fixture 1-0 that time around.

There is little to split the teams according to the Opta supercomputer, with a draw being a likely outcome at 24.9%.

Spurs are the more likely to come away with three points, given their home advantage at 38.9%, though Forest cannot be counted out; they win in 36.3% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Much has been made of Spurs' struggles this season, with Postecoglou insisting the pressure is not getting to him.

Many thought a loss on Thursday would be the decider in his future, but Spurs fought to a 1-0 win over Frankfurt in their quarter-final second leg thanks to Dominic Solanke's penalty.

"Unfortunately, you're going to have to put up with me for a little longer," was his message after that win, but he knows Spurs need to start getting results in the league.

Tottenham have already suffered 17 defeats in the Premier League this season, their most since 2003-04 (19, finished 14th). As such, Postecoglou is one of three Spurs bosses to lose 17+ games in a season, along with Osvaldo Ardiles in 1993-94 (19) and Gerry Francis in 1996-97 (18).

In fact, only the current bottom three clubs – Southampton (26), Leicester (22) and Ipswich (19) – have lost more Premier League games than them.

Things had been going so well at the start of the season, too. But since they hammered Manchester City 4-0 on November 23, 2024, only Ipswich Town (13), Leicester City (eight) and Southampton (six) have picked up fewer points than Spurs' 18.

Indeed, they have lost 12 out of 20 games since beating the reigning champions (W5 D3) in what has been a monumental slide.

So, a trip to one of the league's high-flying teams is not ideal for Postecoglou's side, who have lost 16 of their last 20 top-flight games against teams starting the day in the top half of the table (W3 D1).

Spurs did win their last home match, with that 3-1 victory consigning Southampton to the Championship. But having won just two of their last 11 league games on home soil, Postecoglou's biggest aim will be to improve that record, starting on Monday.

Things were going so well for Forest at the start of April, sitting third in the table and closing in on a stumbling Arsenal after a 1-0 victory over Manchester United on the first of the month.

However, they have lost each of their last two Premier League matches, having won three in a row beforehand. Only once under Nuno Espirito Santo have they suffered three defeats in a row, doing so between February and March last season.

As a result of Newcastle's win on Wednesday, Forest have slipped to fourth and could slip out of the top five by Monday's kick-off, depending on other results this weekend.

Still, little can be taken away from Forest's impressive season.

The Opta supercomputer says their chances of finishing in a Champions League spot are currently 71.4%, though they are most likely to be sitting fifth (30.5%) come May 25.

Forest have won 12 of their last 14 Premier League games against teams starting the day in the bottom half of the table (L2), though a nine-match winning run in such games was ended last time out by Everton.

Perhaps the Easter weekend will help turn the tide. The Tricky Trees have only lost two of their last 35 league games played on Easter Monday (W21 D12).

And in the top-flight, their record is even better. They are unbeaten in 16 (W13 D3) since a 1-0 loss at Chelsea in 1966.

Nuno will certainly look at this as a big opportunity to get their top five push back on track, and with one of the sternest defences in the league behind them (only Liverpool and Arsenal have conceded fewer than Forest's 38 goals this term), they should certainly fancy their chances.

19-year-old Mathys Tel has scored in each of his last two Premier League appearances for Tottenham.

He became just the fifth teenager to score in back-to-back appearances for Tottenham in the competition against Wolves, the first since Dele Alli in February 2016.

No teenager has ever scored in three in a row for Spurs, while only three non-English teenagers have done so overall – Robbie Keane in January 2000 for Coventry, Nicolas Anelka twice during 1998-99 for Arsenal and Romelu Lukaku in March 2013 for West Brom.

Jota Silva has scored in each of his last two away Premier League games for Nottingham Forest, both as a substitute.

All three of his goals in the competition have come off the bench, scoring those from 13 shots, while in five games as a starter, he has had eight shots without finding the net.

It is the joint-most sub goals by a Forest player in a Premier League season, along with Jason Lee's three goals in 1994-95.