The Numbers Game: Can Barca and Flick continue Dortmund dominance?

They cruised into the last eight with a 4-1 aggregate win over Benfica, becoming the third team in the competition's history to reach 20+ quarter-finals.

Barcelona have also scored the most goals of any team across Europe's top five leagues (141), but face a resurgent Dortmund side led by Niko Kovac.

Since his appointment, Kovac has won six of his 12 games in charge of all competitions, reigniting the team's hopes of finishing inside the Bundesliga top four.

The two sides have already met in this year's competition, with Barcelona edging a 3-2 victory in the league phase, but who will come out on top this time around?

Here, we have a look at the key facts and metrics ahead of Wednesday's clash at the Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys.

Barcelona are the overwhelming favourites to take a first-leg lead back to the Westfalenstadion, coming out on top in 65.7% of our pre-match data-led simulations.

A draw has an 18.2% chance of happening, while Dortmund are given a 16.1% probability of coming into the second leg with an aggregate league.

Of the sides remaining in the competition, Barcelona are given the highest probability of reaching the semi-finals with 78%.

The LaLiga leaders have a 23% chance of going all the way and lifting a sixth Champions League title, and their first since 2014-15.

Dortmund, meanwhile, are given a 22% chance of reaching the last four, the lowest of the eight teams, with Aston Villa slightly ahead of them (29%).

The two teams have already met in the competition, with Barcelona winning 3-2 at the Westfalenstadion in December thanks to Ferran Torres' second-half brace.

The Spaniard became just the fourth substitute to score two or more goals in a Champions League match for Barcelona (after Messi in 2008 vs Shakhtar Donetsk, Cristian Tello in 2012 vs Bayer Leverkusen and Ivan Rakitic in 2015 vs BATE Borisov).

Flick's team also inflicted Dortmund's first home defeat in the competition since November 2021 (1-3 vs Ajax), ending their longest run of matches without defeat on home soil in the Champions League.

Barcelona are unbeaten in their five meetings with Borussia Dortmund in European competition (W3 D2). Only against Lyon (eight), Napoli (six) and Werder Bremen (six) have they played more in Europe without losing.

Though Barcelona have a favourable record against Wednesday's opponents, Flick has also enjoyed recent success against Dortmund.

Across his spells with Bayern Munich and current club Barcelona, Flick has won all six of his meetings with BVB.

It is his best 100% record against an opponent in this period. His sides have averaged three goals per game against them (18 in total), and netted at least three goals in five of the six matches.

Indeed, of managers with 10+ games in charge of a team in the Champions League, Flick's Barcelona have the highest goals per game average in the competition's history (3.2 – 32 goals in 10 matches).

The only other side to average 3+ goals per match under a specific manager was Bayern Munich, under Flick (3.17 – 57 goals in 18).

In 28 games in the Champions League with Bayern Munich and Barcelona, Flick has seen his teams score 89 goals, an average of 3.2 goals per game, which is the best of any manager in the competition’s history to take charge of at least one game.

But their impressive displays in the competition this season have been helped by their star-studded attack. Barcelona have scored 32 Champions League goals this campaign, their most since 2011-12 (35). The only other time they've netted more than their 32 this term was in 1999-00 (45, a competition record).

Dortmund have progressed to the quarter-finals of the Champions League for the ninth time and have made it to this stage in consecutive seasons for the first time since doing so in 2012-13 and 2013-14.

But they face a stern test against one of Europe's best teams, with sides from that part of the world usually getting the better of Dortmund.

Indeed, BVB have only won three of their 20 away matches against Spanish opponents in European competition (D5 L12).

They have only won one of the 10 such matches in the knockout stages (D2 L7), which came in a 3-2 win against Sevilla in the last 16 of the Champions League in 2021.

While Dortmund have not won any of their five games against Barcelona (D2 L3), they have only gone six consecutive European matches without beating an opponent against two other sides. One of which is another Spanish team in Real Madrid (six) and then Rangers (seven).

However, they have only lost one of their last eight games in the knockout stages of the Champions League (W5 D2), with that lone defeat coming against Los Blancos in last season's final at Wembley.

They've won each of their last three away games in the knockout stages of this competition, more than they had in their previous 17 such matches combined (D4 L11).

Raphinha has been directly involved in 16 goals in 10 appearances in the Champions League this season (11 goals, five assists) and is the competition's top scorer.

Only Lionel Messi in 2011-12 has had a hand in more in a single edition for Barcelona (19 – 14 goals, five assists).

Gittens has netted four goals for Dortmund in the Champions League this season. It is the most of any player aged under 21 in 2024-25.