It's no secret Kevin Harvick is the driver to beat Sunday as NASCAR heads to Phoenix's one-mile track. 

Coming off back-to-back wins, Harvick holds the track record with eight wins at the desert track and leads all drivers with 1,484 laps led and 782 fastest laps. His driver rating of 110.2 is tops as well.

Phoenix's track is similar to Richmond and New Hampshire which saw Joey Logano, Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch win at respectively last season with Martin Truex Jr. leading the most laps (904) at the two tracks since the start of the 2016 season. 

The biggest question when handicapping Sunday's race is can you fade Harvick? The contrarian play could earn you plenty of money and it's not too far-fetched to do so. Harvick has been shrouded in controversy this week and didn't perform well in Phoenix last season, his first with Ford. 

As VegasInsider points out, Harvick led just 11 total laps in the six races at Phoenix, Richmond and New Hampshire last season with zero wins. 

Our pick to win Sunday is Truex, who checks in at 8/1 odds. Truex has scored back-to-back top-five finishes, spent plenty of time out front at similar tracks, and finished third in the last Phoenix race. 

What are the betting odds for NASCAR at Phoenix?

Kevin Harvick 9/4
Kyle Busch 5/1
Kyle Larson 6/1
Martin Truex Jr. 8/1
Brad Keselowski 8/1
Joey Logano 10/1
Denny Hamlin 15/1
Chase Elliott 15/1
Erik Jones 15/1
Ryan Blaney 20/1
Jimmie Johnson 20/1
Alex Bowman 40/1
Clint Bowyer 40/1
Kurt Busch 40/1
Aric Almirola 40/1
Ryan Newman 50/1
Jamie McMurray 80/1
Paul Menard 80/1
Daniel Suarez 80/1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100/1
Austin Dillon 100/1
William Byron 200/1
Darrell Wallace Jr. 300/1
Kasey Kahne 500/1
Trevor Bayne 500/1
Ty Dillon 500/1
Chris Buescher 1000/1
Michael McDowell 1000/1
AJ Allmendinger 1000/1
Field (all others) 1000/1

Odds via Westgate

Which drivers are best for fantasy NASCAR at Phoenix?

Phoenix has been a track where Chase Elliott has impressed with near-misses like a runner-up finish to Matt Kenseth in November’s race. Elliott has three top-seven showings in four starts and has led 140 laps in the last two races at the track. His driver rating (109.1) is second only to Harvick (110.2) here and the 22-year-old boasts the series-best average running position (6.248) at ISM Raceway.

Kyle Busch has been slightly better than Harvick at Phoenix over the past two years, recording an average finish of four with 189 laps led. 

Dale Earnhardt Jr. scored his last Cup Series win at Phoenix and his replacement driver, Alex Bowman won the pole at Phoenix in 2016 while substituting for Junior. Bowman led 194 of the 324 laps and finished sixth.

In five of the last six races at flat one-mile tracks, Daniel Suarez has finished in the top 12 every time. Suarez owns Phoenix victories in the Truck Series and the NASCAR Mexico Series. His teammate Erik Jones finished fourth in Phoenix's November race and will wheel the car Matt Kenseth took to victory lane as he takes over in the No. 20 Toyota.