Australian Open: Sinner still top dog as Djokovic eyes history and Kyrgios returns

The first grand slam of 2025 is here, and if the events of 2024 are anything to go by, the Australian Open could tell us much about what to expect this year.

Twelve months ago, Jannik Sinner arrived at Melbourne Park without a major title and fourth in the ATP World Rankings.

This year, the Italian heads Down Under as a two-time grand slam champion and has a commanding lead at the top of the rankings after dominating throughout 2024.

Novak Djokovic, the last man to retain the crown in 2021, enters 2025 down in seventh in the world rankings, as the sole survivor from the 'Big Three' and having gone a full calendar year without winning a grand slam for just the second time since 2010.

With Carlos Alcaraz viewed as the other primary contender, will we see a continuation of tennis' brave new world, or does Djokovic have more left to offer?

And what of the outsiders, with Daniil Medvedev having lost three finals at Melbourne Park and Nick Kyrgios set for a box-office return?

Ahead of the first-round matches, we delve into the Opta data to preview the men's draw.

You can't help but admire shot-making like this...@janniksin, take a bow.#AO2025 pic.twitter.com/itUZ3OPKZn

— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) January 10, 2025

Sinner still one step ahead?

Though a doping investigation cast a shadow over the middle part of his season and the World Anti-Doping Agency is appealing the verdict of no wrongdoing in that case, 2024 was Sinner's year.

Melbourne was where it all began, as Sinner – aged 22 years and 165 days – became the youngest man to achieve successive top-five wins in the quarter-finals, semi-finals and final of a grand slam, seeing off Andrey Rublev, Djokovic and Medvedev.

Sinner then went from strength to strength, finishing the year with eight ATP-level titles, including the US Open and the ATP Finals.

The Italian became world number one for the first time last June and has subsequently won 92% of his matches as the ATP's top-ranked player, the best ratio ever recorded by some distance (Bjorn Borg and Ivan Lendl won 80%).

Sinner's dominance was unmatched last year, but what will the 2025 Australian Open bring?

1 - Jannik Sinner has won 83.8% of his sets played in ATP events during 2024, the best set win rate amongst ATP's top-50 this season. Champion. @atptour @ATPMediaInfo pic.twitter.com/LXcI7HqVWw

— OptaAce (@OptaAce) December 16, 2024

Sinner will open his campaign against Nicolas Jarry of Chile. A first-round win would be Sinner's 16th from 20 singles matches at the Australian Open. Since 2000, only Yevgeny Kafelnikov (17) has more wins from their first 20 outings.

Seeded first, Sinner cannot face world number two Zverev, Alcaraz or Djokovic until the final, so he faces a much kinder route through the tournament than the one he navigated last year.

Life in the old dog?

Djokovic, by contrast, endured his worst year – in terms of grand slam performances – since 2017, failing to win a major and only making one such final, at Wimbledon.

The 37-year-old is still chasing the major title that would eclipse Margaret Court's record of 25, and he said this week he is yet to set a date for his retirement, having seen old rival Rafael Nadal hang up his racket last year.

If Djokovic is to enjoy a renaissance, Melbourne Park would be a fitting place for it to start. His 10 Australian Open titles are the second-most by any man at a major, after Nadal's 14 French Open successes.

When he opens his campaign against Nishesh Basavareddy, Djokovic will become just the fourth player to make 20 appearances in the Australian Open main draw, after Federer (21), Lleyton Hewitt and Feliciano Lopez (both 20).

However, Djokovic has paid the price for sliding down the rankings, and he may have to face the world's current top three if he is to go all the way.

He will hope new coach Andy Murray can make a difference, though he may want to ignore the Scot's advice if he makes the showpiece match – Murray has appeared in the most men's singles finals at the Australian Open without winning in the Open Era, finishing as runner-up five times.

Can Carlitos rediscover lost momentum?

Many believed Djokovic's drop-off would lead to an era of Alcaraz ascendency, with the Spaniard's straight-sets win in last year's Wimbledon final viewed as a passing of the torch.

At 21 years old, Alcaraz could become the youngest man to ever complete a career grand slam, having never previously gone beyond the quarter-finals at Melbourne Park.

However, his 2024 tailed off in disappointing fashion, as he went out in round two of the US Open to Botic van de Zandschulp, then crashed out in the group stage at the ATP Finals.

Including the Davis Cup and Six Kings Slam, Alcaraz is 8-5 in singles since claiming the Beijing title in October, and the stacked nature of his draw will only make things tougher.

However, Alcaraz typically turns up for the slams. Among active male players, only Djokovic (88.1%, 377-51) can better his 84.5% (60-11) win rate at grand slams, and he has a 43-3 record at majors against non-top-20 players.

Kazakhstan's Alexander Shevchenko is up first, and Alcaraz is 15-0 in first-round matches at majors. He could become just the third man in the Open Era to win his first 16 such matches, after Borg and Nadal.

And the outsiders?

While Sinner, Djokovic and Alcaraz are the favourites, there are a handful of outsiders looking to make a splash.

Medvedev has reached – and lost – three Australian Open finals (in 2021, 2022 and 2024) – could he challenge again after landing on the kinder side of the draw?

The 2021 US Open champion also has pedigree at the hard-court slams, with only Djokovic (88.9%, 184-23) bettering his 80% (60-15) win rate at those events.

Elsewhere, Taylor Fritz is seeded fourth after capping a breakout 2024 with a run to the US Open final.

Fritz is the first American man to hold a top-five seeding at a grand slam since Andy Roddick at Wimbledon in 2010, and the first at the Australian Open since James Blake in 2007.

Finally, there is the small matter of Kyrgios' return. The Australian maverick – who has missed the last eight majors – declared this week that tennis had become "mundane" in his absence.

Down week now!!!! Gotta rest the wrist and hope that all will be well for the AO hope you all were entertained pic.twitter.com/jLAfHOHIa2

— Nicholas Kyrgios (@NickKyrgios) January 2, 2025

The home favourite will face Jacob Fearnley first, with his last match win at a grand slam coming against then-world number one Medvedev at the 2022 US Open.

Kyrgios is unseeded for this tournament, but he has form for springing surprises. The 29-year-old was one of just three unseeded players to reach a grand slam final in the last two decades, doing so at Wimbledon in 2022. The others, Marcos Baghdatis and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, achieved the feat at the Australian Open in 2006 and 2008.

Should Kyrgios make it to round three, a potential matchup with Zverev awaits. Fireworks should be expected.