WSL: Can improving Arsenal blow title race wide open against Chelsea?

It feels a little early to be talking about a title decider, but this weekend's Women's Super League action could provide just that as Chelsea welcome Arsenal to Stamford Bridge, with the Blues still unbeaten and hoping to go 10 points clear at the summit.

This is one of the most played fixtures in WSL history with the Blues winning 12 of the previous 28 meetings between the teams and the Gunners picking up 10 wins (six draws).

Under new coach Sonia Bompastor, Chelsea have dominated on all fronts this season, with the former Lyon boss aiming to create her own history in the post-Emma Hayes era.

The Blues have won 10 of their 11 WSL games this term (one draw), the joint-quickest a side has reached double figures for victories in a season along with Arsenal in 2018-19 and 2019-20. Only the Gunners, in 2019-20, have won 11 of their opening 12 matches.

The reverse fixture in October saw Chelsea take the bragging rights, winning 2-1 at the Emirates Stadium. It was an embarrassing affair for Arsenal as they conceded twice in 12 minutes early on and was ultimately the result that led to Jonas Eidevall's resignation.

After that game, the Opta supercomputer put Arsenal's chances of winning the WSL title at 1.4%, down from 16.1% at the start of the season.

It was the worst start in Arsenal's WSL history, and only one team has ever won the title after winning just one of their opening four matches.

However, fast forward to January and Arsenal – previously thought of as no-hopers – are at the head of the chasing pack and gunning for revenge.

New boss, new Arsenal

So, what’s changed for Arsenal? The answer is Renee Slegers.

After the departure of Eidevall, the Gunners looked to his former assistant to lead the club on an interim basis while their search for a permanent replacement began.

Arsenal soon realised they did not need to look any further than the Dutch coach as she restored the confidence the Gunners' players had been sorely missing.

Her impressive stats demonstrate why the Arsenal leadership finally made her the permanent boss. Her start as a manager ranks as one of the best the league has seen.

Slegers has won six of her seven WSL games in charge of Arsenal. She ranks behind only Bompastor in terms of the most points taken in a manager’s opening seven WSL matches, level with her predecessor Eidevall.

An inability to score goals was one of Arsenal's major flaws at the start of the campaign, but the Gunners have turned this around under Slegers.

Arsenal have scored 21 goals under Slegers in the WSL, at an average of three per game. Only two managers in the WSL (Eidevall – 24 and Bompastor – 25) have ever seen their team score more goals over their opening seven matches in charge.

But it is not just in attack where she has given the team confidence, as their defensive form has also improved. Slegers’ Arsenal have only conceded once in the league, making her the manager with the fewest goals conceded across her opening seven WSL matches.

Arsenal have won each of their last five WSL games without conceding, with the last team to put together a longer such winning run being the Gunners themselves back in October 2022 (10 wins in a row to nil).

So, she the team confident and scoring goals, which could not be said under Eidevall. Arsenal approach Sunday's game on the back of a 5-0 win last time out in the WSL against bottom club Crystal Palace.

They also put four past Brighton in the quarter-final of the League Cup in midweek, making it nine goals in their last two games with seven different players getting on the scoresheet.

Slegers is also getting the best out of summer signing Mariona Caldente, who has scored two of her three WSL goals since the winter break.

However, stopping Chelsea’s will be Slegers' toughest test to date.

Bompastor charge gathers pace

So far in 2024-25, Chelsea are the only team to score in every WSL game, have taken the most shots in the division (220) and have the highest expected goals tally (25.3 xG).

Where other teams have struggled due to an over-reliance on one goalscorer, this Chelsea side have goals coming from all over. Chelsea have had 14 different goal scorers in the WSL so far this season.

Guro Reiten is their current top scorer with six, while she is also the leading Blues player for xG (4.19), chances created (25) and expected assists (3.7 xA), with Johanna Rytting Kaneryd second with 1.76 xA.

Reiten is yet to register an assist this season, while Rytting Kaneryd has two. Nevertheless, the former's excellent displays were rewarded earlier this month when Chelsea triggered a clause to extend her contract until 2026.

Across the WSL, only Khadija Shaw (nine) and Alessia Russo (seven) have scored more goals than Reiten. Despite her lack of assists, Reiten's figure of 3.7 xA is the highest in the league, while only Katie McCabe (27) and Lauren Hemp (26) have created more chances than her 25.

Elsewhere, Aggie Beever-Jones is living up to the hype as one of Chelsea’s brightest young players. She has only started four WSL games but is their second-highest scorer with five goals. She has had the joint-second-most shots of all Chelsea players (25) and is averaging a goal every 98.8 minutes.

Beever-Jones has scored 11 goals across her last 10 WSL starts, netting on each of her last four, only Shaw (78 mins) has a better minutes-per-goal rate in the division this season than the Lioness (minimum 180 minutes).

Five different Chelsea players have had 20 or more shots in the WSL this season – Rytting Kaneryd (26), Beever-Jones and Reiten (25), Sjoeke Nusken (23) and Mayra Ramirez (20). Only Manchester City have seen as many players manage 20 efforts on goal.

Bompastor has maintained Chelsea's reputation as one of the most dangerous teams in Europe, ensuring there has been no drop-off from the triumphant end to Hayes' reign.

Russo on the up

After a slow start to the season, Arsenal striker Russo has finally found form and this has been a major factor in their recent upturn.

Among Arsenal players, no one can better Russo’s goals, xG, shot or goal involvement figures in the WSL this term, while she also has an 18.42% shot conversion rate.

Under Eidevall, Russo failed to score in three league starts despite accumulating 1.31 xG from nine shots.

Since Slegers’ appointment, Russo has scored seven goals from 3.84 xG, averaging a goal every 80 minutes. She has also had 29 shots, 15 more than second-best Frida Maanum (14). Her newfound confidence is clear for all to see.

Manchester City star Shaw, the only player to outscore Russo in the WSL this term, is also the only player to register a higher xG figure (6.32 to Russo’s 5.14). Russo also ranks second in the competition for goal involvements (nine – seven goals, two assists) and total shots (38), behind Shaw in both categories.

Russo has scored in each of her last six WSL appearances and could become the fourth player in WSL history to net on seven or more consecutive outings after Bethany England (nine in February 2020), Beth Mead (seven in August 2015) and Sam Kerr (seven in April 2022).

Chelsea will be desperate to nullify the threat of Russo, who showed her credentials as a big-game player through her contribution to England's triumphant Euro 2022 campaign.

Chelsea defending fearsome record

Arsenal have failed to win any of their last five away WSL games against Chelsea (one draw, four defeats) since winning 5-0 at Kingsmeadow in October 2018 under Joe Montemurro.

Chelsea, meanwhile, have won 40 of their last 42 home games in the WSL (one draw, one defeat), a run that started with a 3-0 victory against Arsenal in February 2021. The Blues have won all seven of their previous league matches at Stamford Bridge.

Neutrals will be hoping for goals and they should be hopeful of seeing some. Chelsea (three times) and Arsenal (two times) are the only teams to win a WSL game this season by five or more goals, with both sides winning their most recent league match 5-0.

Can Arsenal upset the odds?

So what does the Opta supercomputer forecast for Sunday's game?

With a 60.3% win probability, Chelsea are the overwhelming favourites, with the draw deemed a 20.8% chance and an Arsenal win only occurring in 18.9% of simulations.

Chelsea have a 96.7% chance of winning the title, according to the supercomputer. The model predicts Arsenal to finish second, with a 48.6% chance of doing so.

However, if Arsenal can do what nobody else has managed to achieve this season and beat Chelsea, then maybe, just maybe, there is still life in the title race.