WSL: Arsenal and Man Utd to fight it out for second place

Chelsea have already been crowned champions, while Crystal Palace will be going straight back down after their maiden season in the top flight.

The Champions League places are already settled, too, though the race for second position - and the Golden Boot battle - are going to the wire.

Saturday's contest between Arsenal and Manchester United sees second take on third, with just a point separating them.

Last time out, United ensured their spot in next season's Champions League with a 2-2 draw against rivals Manchester City. Despite successive defeats to Aston Villa and Brighton, Arsenal also have European football to look forward to next term.

Of course, Renee Slegers' team are targeting European glory before the month is out, with a showdown against Champions League holders Barcelona coming up on May 24.

But since their stunning comeback win over Lyon in the Champions League semi-finals, the Gunners have been poor. It would be understandable, of course, if they did have at least one eye on that final.

However, going into such a monumental occasion on the back of three games without a win would represent far from ideal preparation, and after losing as many games in the past eight days as they had in their previous 25 league matches, Arsenal need to get back on track. They have not lost three WSL games in a row since May 2014.

United, though, have a final of their own to prepare for - they will look to dash Chelsea's hopes of winning a domestic treble in the FA Cup final on May 18. The Red Devils are the holders of that trophy, too.

So, these teams still have more than just pride to play for.

Our final #WSL game of the season draws near #MUWomen pic.twitter.com/mxF66ylDHu

— Manchester United Women (@ManUtdWomen) May 7, 2025

Even though Arsenal have been in poor form results-wise, they have been creating chances.

Arsenal created chances worth 3.46 xG against Brighton on Monday but only scored twice, shipping four goals from 1.68 xGA.

The Gunners had 25 shots against the Seagulls, with Russo and Caitlin Foord both having five each. They were part of a group of four players who managed two shots on target, along with Mariona Caldentey and Frida Maanum.

Foord contributed 1.06 xG to Arsenal's overall total, with Russo and Maanum both finishing on 0.46 xG each. Against Villa in the game prior, the Gunners created just 1.5 xG from 16 attempts (six on target) - essentially, their shots averaged just a 9% chance of resulting in a goal.

In contrast, in their Champions League semi-final second leg against Lyon, Arsenal created just 1.2 xG overall despite scoring four goals, displaying a clinical edge that has since been lacking.

They had just nine shots overall in that match, getting six on target. Russo was responsible for four of those.

United, then, with the strongest defence in the WSL this season, will present an ideal challenge ahead of Arsenal facing Europe's best in the form of Barcelona.

The Opta supercomputer is backing Arsenal to get back to winning ways.

Arsenal came out on top in 53.5% of the data-led match simulations, while the model is predicting the draw is a higher chance (23.9%) than a United win (22.6%).

With the format of the Champions League changing to one that emulates the men's format, there is plenty of importance to finishing second.

The WSL's third-placed side will enter the process in the second round of qualification, but the team that comes second will enter in the third - a two-legged play-off against one opponent.

With that in mind, both teams will want to avoid an additional qualifying round to make it into the main league phase.

Ahead of this season, the Opta supercomputer predicted Arsenal would finish third (37.7%) and United were forecasted to place fourth (57.4%). Man City were predicted to finish in second place.

Including the Spring Series, Arsenal have won their final WSL game of the season 11 times out of 14 campaigns (D2 L1), beating Brighton 5-0 last season at Meadow Park.

On the flip side, though, they have won just one of their last six WSL games against United (D3 L2), winning this fixture last season 3-1.

Arsenal have conceded nine goals in their last two WSL games, as many as they had in their previous 13. However, at home, they have won their last seven in a row, while scoring at least four goals each time.

But only Chelsea (45%) and Man City (43%) have a better win rate against Arsenal in the WSL than United, who have won three of 10 top-flight meetings with the Gunners (30% - D3 L4).

However, United have lost their final game of the season in two of the last three campaigns, going down to Chelsea in both 2021-22 (4-2) and 2023-24 (6-0), which marks their biggest WSL defeat.

Alessia Russo has been crucial to Arsenal's generally superb form under Slegers.

She is tied for top scorer in the WSL with Khadija Shaw on 12 goals, though she has recorded a higher expected goals tally than the Man City striker (9.4 xG to Shaw's 8.3). In fact, Russo's xG is the highest in the league.

Russo averages a goal every 133 minutes, compared to Shaw's 74, and nobody in the league has had more shots (69) or more on target (33) than Russo, who has a 17.4% shot conversion rate.

She has also had 15 big chances (which ranks third in the league behind Elisabeth Terland and Stina Blackstenius), but has scored more than anyone else (nine).

With Shaw out of action, Russo has a clear shot at finishing as this season's leading scorer.

But it has not always been an easy ride this term. In fact, Russo did not score in her first four WSL matches of the season, which came under Jonas Eidevall.

She played 271 minutes across those games and had nine shots worth 1.3 xG. Five of those efforts were on target, giving her a 71.4% shooting accuracy, but her expected goals on target (xGoT) sat at 0.4, suggesting Russo's finishing was far from clinical.

Under Slegers, a renewed Russo has netted all of her league goals this season in 16 matches. Her haul has come from 8.1 xG, and 60 shots, 28 of which have been on target.

While her shooting accuracy has dropped to 60.9%, her xGoT is 9.8, showing her finishing has improved.

At the other end, there is an outside contender for the Golden Boot set to lead United's line.

Terland (nine goals) sits fourth in the race, also behind West Ham's Shekiera Martinez (10).

She has accumulated 9.2 xG this season and has had the second-most shots (63) and shots on target (25), as well as having the most big chances (19), netting from four of them.

Terland has registered the joint-most goal involvements this term (14, level with Russo), having also provided five assists.

Though she would need at least a hat-trick to stand a chance of finishing joint-top scorer, her impact at United this season should not be underestimated.

No matter who scoops this season's Golden Boot, it will likely be the lowest goal tally required to do so since 2016 (excluding the Spring Series), when Eni Aluko won it with nine goals.

It will almost certainly be the first time since 2019-20 that the highest goalscorer has not scored 20+ goals.

Aiming to stop Russo will be United's outstanding goalkeeper, Phallon Tullis-Joyce.

The American has kept 13 clean sheets this season, and needs just one more to match Mary Earps' single-season record for a WSL goalkeeper (14, set in 2022-23). Tullis-Joyce will win the Golden Glove in her first season as United's first choice, having stepped in to fill the void left by Earps.

There are other records that could be matched and set, too.

If Maya Le Tissier helps United keep a clean sheet, she will have participated in 14 shutouts in the WSL this season.

Only one defender (Demi Stokes, 15, with Man City in 2016-17) has helped keep more clean sheets for a WSL team in a single season.

Meanwhile, Beth Mead (49) will hope to register her 50th assist. No player in WSL history has assisted as many goals as the Arsenal forward.