WSL 2024-25: Can Arsenal or Man City dethrone Bompastor's Chelsea?

The Women's Super League is set for a shake-up this season after serving up one of the tightest title races in recent history.

Chelsea pipped Manchester City to the crown on goal difference last season, sending Emma Hayes off with a fifth consecutive WSL triumph, and her seventh overall.

But Sonia Bompastor is in the hot seat now, and her Chelsea team will kick off the new season on September 20 against Aston Villa, who are also under new management.

The first heavyweight clash of the season is just two days later, with City and Arsenal facing off at the start of their title challenges, with both keen to dethrone Chelsea.

The season promises twists and turns, but will it throw up any surprises? Or will it be business as usual?

The 24/25 season is officially here and the stakes have never been higher pic.twitter.com/7eIM0G9zNB

— Barclays Women's Super League (@BarclaysWSL) September 16, 2024

Will Chelsea's reign finally come to an end?

Hayes may not be in West London any more, having swapped Chelsea for the United States, but her dominant legacy remains as Bompastor, a seasoned winner herself, takes the reins.

Having won three Division 1 Feminine league titles as Lyon manager, the Opta supercomputer is backing her to lead Chelsea (59.8%) to an incredible sixth WSL trophy in a row. No manager has ever won the WSL in their first season, and to do so would certainly begin her own legacy.

The team scored 71 goals in the WSL last term, setting a new record for a 22-game season, outperforming an expected goals figure of 59.87, which was still the highest accumulated tally of any team in the league, bettering Arsenal's 55.48 xG.

The likes of Lauren James and Aggie Beever-Jones are likely to prove pivotal at the top end of the pitch once again, but they have game-changers all over the pitch.

Niamh Charles has proven instrumental from left-back, making the second-most passes (1,220, of which 982 were successful) of all Chelsea players behind Jess Carter, who is no longer at the club. She also contested 210 duels, with only Erin Cuthbert (220) taking on more, but no player won more than her 130.

But having come so close to seeing their title streak end last season, they face another tough test to defend their crown, as both Arsenal and Man City will be keen to take advantage of Hayes' departure.

City finished as runners-up for the sixth time and are predicted to endure the same fate again come May, with a 23.5% chance of clinching the title as we start the season.

City's defensive sturdiness proved to be a valuable asset last term and was one of the reasons they ran Chelsea so close. They conceded the fewest goals in the league (15), outperforming their expected goals against figure (19.89 xGA).

That is partly due to the form of Khiara Keating, who scooped the Golden Glove in her breakout season after keeping nine clean sheets. She had the best save percentage (79.45%) of any goalkeeper in the league to play more than 10 games.

All the WSL teams have bolstered their ranks in the off-season, but none of the deals have stood out quite like City's early swoop to bring in Vivianne Miedema, who left Arsenal as a free agent.

Taylor has already acknowledged that the Dutchwoman could be the key to ending their long wait for a league title, and who could blame him?

Miedema has scored 80 WSL goals in 106 games, outperforming her 59.63 xG. She has also had the most shots on record since Opta began collecting such data for the competition, with 452, and 198 of those have hit the target.

And she will be sharing the spotlight with Khadija Shaw, who stole the show last time around, clinching her first Golden Boot since joining the club by netting 21 goals.

The Jamaican bettered her xG total by nearly 10 goals (12.31) and scored 11 of the 25 big chances that fell her way in the competition.

She now has 50 WSL goals in just 57 games for City, and with her tally improving year-on-year, she will surely be a key player for the Citizens once again.

Meanwhile, Arsenal may have slipped out of the title race on the home stretch last year after dropping valuable away points in a 3-1 defeat to Chelsea and a 1-1 draw with Everton, but Jonas Eidevall's side should not be counted out, despite being assigned just a 14.9% chance of getting their hands on the trophy.

Arsenal, who will be playing at the Emirates Stadium this season, are already a formidable home team, having lost only one such game last campaign (1-0 to Liverpool on the opening day), but a capacity crowd could be the extra boost they need.

A lot of the onus for goals will likely fall on Alessia Russo's shoulders after she finished as their top scorer in the WSL last season (12), but Stina Blackstenius' tally in all competitions had her beat.

The Swede's goals have proved invaluable to Arsenal over the years, and last year alone, she earned them a 1-0 win over Chelsea in the Conti Cup final, before her double over Man City effectively ended their rivals' title hopes.

Blackstenius has the best shots-per-90 ratio in the top-flight (5.5), managing 41 efforts in her 666 minutes on the field, and netting seven goals from those.

Manchester United, the runners-up in 2022-23, may have endured an underwhelming campaign last time around, but they are still being given a slim 1.8% chance of causing an upset to claim their first WSL title.

Marc Skinner led them to their first piece of major silverware in the FA Cup, but with some big-name departures, they will need to gel quickly to stand a chance of mounting a real challenge.

And while the Opta supercomputer does not believe they can do it, everybody loves a dark horse, and Liverpool could find themselves in the mix coming off a fourth-placed finish.

Matt Beard is the only current manager in the league to have won a WSL title, so that experience could prove vital, especially if the Reds get off to a strong start.

Managerial merry-go-round keeps spinning

Unsurprisingly, all the talk before the season is about Bompastor and the big shoes she has to fill.

Bompastor won exactly 100 of her 118 games in charge of Lyon, registering an 84.75% win ratio and losing only eight times. Her Lyon team scored 381 goals, averaging 3.81 per match while conceding only 71 in return (0.71 per game).

Chelsea have brought in a manager they hope can win them the one thing Hayes never could: the Champions League, which Bompastor won with Lyon. The elusive trophy will be high on their priority list, but Blues fans will be hoping it is not at the expense of another league title.

Bompastor will not be the only manager making her WSL bow on September 20, as she will face off against Robert de Pauw, Carla Ward's replacement at Villa.

De Pauw, joining after two years at Bayer Leverkusen, has been clever in his recruitment, replacing Alisha Lehmann and Simone Magill with exciting up-and-coming talents that could see them push for a place towards the top once again.

But perhaps De Pauw's biggest challenge will be to get Rachel Daly back to her high-scoring best after she managed just eight goals in the WSL last time around.

Daly was 2022-23's surprise package, enjoying a superb campaign by netting 22 goals to clinch the Golden Boot, holding off the likes of Shaw to get her hands on the award.

There have been changes at the other end of the table, too.

Brighton have welcomed Dario Vidosic from Melbourne City as they look to stave off relegation, and the manager may have quite the task on his hands.

However, his 54.55% win rate in the A-League from 25 matches (12 wins) is a promising sign, with the team averaging 1.86 points per game under the 37-year-old.

Meanwhile, Leicester City, who finished 10th last season, have brought in Amandine Miquel from Reims after seven years at the club, which included a promotion to the French top-flight.

The Foxes are tipped to be fighting for survival, and Miquel has warned fans they will need to trust the process while she tries to impress a "strong tactical identity" onto the squad, with her first aim surely to improve on the four wins they accumulated last campaign.

Who's In and Who's Out

Miedema's departure looked like it might spell trouble for Arsenal, but the Gunners have been savvy with their transfer dealings.

Young winger Rosa Kafaji is an exciting up-and-coming talent, but they also added a Champions League winner of their own, getting Mariona Caldentey on a free transfer from Barcelona.

Caldentey scored 10 goals in the league last season, also laying on nine assists, the third-highest tally in the competition, while her 57 chances created were only bettered by Caroline Hansen (85).

With Daphne van Domselaar also joining from Aston Villa to strengthen their goalkeeping position, Arsenal have given themselves a strong foundation to build success this campaign despite the loss of Miedema.

Chelsea have also been busy, strengthening their defence by bringing in serial winner Lucy Bronze.

The right-back has won every domestic trophy available in France, Spain and England, having left Barcelona after scooping an impressive quadruple, which included her fifth Champions League title.

Bronze created 28 chances for Barca last season from full-back – the second-most of any defender for the European champions, after Ona Batlle.

Man United, on the other hand, have drawn attention for the wrong reasons.

They started the off-season by announcing that club captain Katie Zelem, who created the most chances of any player in the WSL last season (58), Lucia Garcia and Mary Earps were all leaving after their contracts expired.

Grace Clinton is back, however, after her breakout season at Tottenham and will hope to link up with fellow lioness Ella Toone.

To add to United fans' transfer misery, experienced forward Nikita Parris also left the club in deadline day's biggest story, choosing to switch to a Brighton team and a likely relegation battle.

She will be playing alongside Fran Kirby, with Chelsea's all-time leading goalscorer leaving as a free agent at the end of last season.

Last campaign, she played just 897 minutes across 21 appearances in the league, but still managed to create 31 chances (the 11th-best tally in the league), with 10 of those considered 'big' chances.

Kirby won seven WSL titles under Hayes at Chelsea, and though she may not be pushing for silverware this time around, her experience could prove invaluable, along with Parris', as Vidosic looks to find his footing in a new league.

New kids on the block

Crystal Palace are just days away from embarking on their first-ever WSL season, with Laura Kaminski leading them to promotion from the Women's Championship in her first year in charge.

They finished top of the pile with 46 points, a 12-point improvement on their previous season, while they only suffered four defeats compared to 10 in 2022-23.

Kaminski immediately made Palace harder to beat, and they conceded just 20 goals in the league last season. But there was also huge progress at the other end of the pitch, with Palace scoring a league-high 55 goals, 16 more than Southampton in second.

The Eagles have seen a high turnover in the transfer window, bringing in eight new players and saying goodbye to eight, and they will not be eased into WSL action, with FA Cup runners-up Tottenham first up for them.

They are not the favourites to go down, though they are given a 20.2% chance of dropping straight back into the second tier – with four teams seen to be firmly in the relegation scrap.

The Opta supercomputer may show slight favour to the newcomers, but Brighton are not so lucky, with a 26.4% chance of finishing bottom of the table.

The unpredictability of their new coach coupled with a lot of changes to their squad is likely the reason for that unfavourable forecast, but as touched on before, the acquisitions of Kirby and Parris could turn the tide.

However, there are issues that need to be addressed quickly. Brighton lost the joint-second most games in the WSL last year (13), with only relegated Bristol City suffering more defeats.

The Seagulls netted just 26 times last season, the third-lowest tally, from a total of 208 shots (including blocks), and though they bettered their xG tally of 21.91, improving their creativity will surely be high on Vidosic's priority list.

In any other season, West Ham could have been in real danger of going down, but Bristol's struggles meant their 15 points were enough to secure another year in the top-flight in 2023-24.

Like Brighton, they lost 13 of their matches but only managed to get three wins on the board in Rehanne Skinner's first campaign at the helm.

One reason for their struggles was a lack of firepower, as they only scored 20 goals, level with the Robins, netting around three fewer goals than expected (22.92 xG).

They are being given a 19.2% chance of going down, and though Skinner will be hoping they can improve on her first year, having lost Mackenzie Arnold and Hawa Cissoko, it is likely they will be in the relegation fight once more.

Leicester are also tipped as candidates to drop, with a 21.9% chance, not helped by their stumbling finish to the WSL last season, in which they failed to win any of their last eight matches.

That run was compounded by a 4-0 defeat to Liverpool on the final day, and with the Reds first up for them this time around, they will be desperate to put in a better showing in Miquel's first outing.