Women's Super League predictions: Will Bompastor make winning start with Chelsea?

The Women's Super League returns with a bang this weekend, with upheaval at the top of the table offering the promise of another thrilling campaign.

Chelsea gave Emma Hayes a triumphant send-off by edging out Manchester City on goal difference for their fifth straight title, but will former Lyon coach Sonia Bompastor be able to replicate her success?

Aston Villa are the opponents for her first game at the helm on Friday, while Sunday's action features a huge clash between potential title challengers Arsenal and City.

Elsewhere, Manchester United start their bid to improve on last season's disappointing fifth-placed finish against West Ham, while newly promoted Crystal Palace face a tough trip to Tottenham.

But who does the Opta supercomputer expect to start 2024-25 with three points?

CHELSEA V ASTON VILLA

Unsurprisingly, given their recent dominance of the division, Chelsea are overwhelming favourites to beat Villa – who finished seventh in 2023-24 – in Friday's curtain-raiser.

They won 85.1% of the supercomputer's pre-match simulations, with Villa given just a 5.5% chance of victory and the draw deemed a 9.5% likelihood.

Kingsmeadow was a real fortress under Hayes, and Bompastor will be desperate to retain the fear factor in her debut season. Chelsea have won 35 of their last 37 home league games, drawing one and losing one.

The Blues have, however, only won two of their six opening matches of a WSL campaign as the reigning champions, drawing two and losing two. One of those victories did come last term, though, as they beat Tottenham 2-1 at Stamford Bridge.

MANCHESTER UNITED V WEST HAM

Old Trafford plays host to the first of two games on Saturday, as Marc Skinner's United take on West Ham, looking to kick on after ending a largely disappointing 2023-24 campaign with FA Cup glory.

They are assigned a 71.5% chance of a win, with West Ham victorious in 12.6% of our pre-match simulations and 15.9% finishing all square.

This will, of course, be United's first league game since Mary Earps departed for Paris Saint-Germain. The Red Devils suffered their heaviest-ever WSL defeat in her final game, going down 6-0 to Chelsea on home soil on the final day of last season.

Phallon Tullis-Joyce will hope for a quiet outing after stepping up to replace Earps as number one, and she may get her wish against a West Ham side that accumulated a miserable 15 points last term. Their seven away losses in 2023-24 was a joint-high among all WSL teams (also Bristol City).

BRIGHTON V EVERTON

Just one place and four points separated Everton from Brighton in the final standings, and the supercomputer struggles to separate them ahead of their clash at Broadfield.

The Toffees are slight favourites with a 40.6% win probability, compared to Brighton's 33.7%, while 25.7% of the supercomputer's pre-match simulations finished level.

Everton will hope to continue their momentum from the end of 2023-24, having ended the season on a four-game unbeaten streak (two wins, two draws), their longest of the campaign. They could go five without losing for the first time since October 2020.

Brighton's major arrival ahead of the new season is Chelsea great Fran Kirby, who has five goal involvements in eight WSL appearances against Everton, scoring on both of her starts versus them.

ARSENAL V MANCHESTER CITY

The headline fixture of the opening matchday takes place at the Emirates Stadium on Sunday, as two of the sides most likely to challenge Chelsea for their crown – Arsenal and City – go head-to-head.

The supercomputer makes the Gunners favourites on home soil, with Jonas Eidevall's team winning 42.6% of our pre-match simulations. City are assigned a 30.7% chance of victory, and a 26.7% chance of earning a point.

Vivianne Miedema's move from Arsenal to City has added further intrigue to this fixture. She netted 80 times in 106 league appearances for Arsenal to become the WSL's all-time leading scorer, netting against all 15 opponents she has faced in the competition. Arsenal will be the 16th different team she has faced – will she return to haunt them?

City have won each of their last eight away league games, with the only longer such run in WSL history also being by City – a 12-match sequence between July 2016 and January 2018.

Arsenal, though, have won each of their last three WSL meetings with City, and they boast the most prolific player in the history of the opening matchday in the competition, with Beth Mead previously hitting seven goals on the first weekend, including two braces.

TOTTENHAM V CRYSTAL PALACE

Crystal Palace edged out Charlton Athletic to win the Women's Championship title last season, reaching the WSL for the first time. They will be the 19th different team to compete in the division and the first debutants since Leicester City in 2021.

Excluding the inaugural 2011 campaign, only one of 10 teams has ever won their first WSL match, Sunderland beating Liverpool 2-1 in 2015 (one draw, eight defeats).

The Eagles are not given much hope of replicating that feat by the Supercomputer, which assigns them just an 11.5% chance of victory to Tottenham's 72.7%. The draw is given a 15.8% likelihood.

Tottenham have a decent record on the opening day, too, only starting one of their last four WSL campaigns with a defeat (two wins, one draw), which came against champions Chelsea last season.

LIVERPOOL V LEICESTER CITY

Matt Beard is the only coach among the 12 WSL teams to have previously won the title, and his Liverpool side ended a promising 2023-24 campaign in fourth. They will be confident of getting underway with a win this term, with the supercomputer giving them a 60.2% chance of beating Leicester.

The Foxes, who would have been in relegation trouble if not for Bristol City's struggles last term, are given an 18.9% chance of victory, and a 20.9% likelihood of earning a draw.

Liverpool and Leicester also met on the final day of last term, the Reds winning 4-0. Seven teams have previously met on the final matchday of one WSL campaign and the opening weekend of the next, but only three have won both such meetings (Man City v Notts County, Tottenham v Birmingham, and Tottenham v Leicester).

Only Arsenal (nine) and Chelsea (seven) have won their opening game of a WSL season more often than Liverpool (six), who have started four campaigns with a victory under Beard (one defeat).