U.S. soccer vs. Panama: World Cup qualifying scenarios

The United States soccer team can't qualify for the 2018 World Cup outright Friday night against Panama, but the USMNT controls its own destiny heading into the final two qualifiers.

With wins Friday in Orlando against Panama and Tuesday at Trinidad and Tobago, the U.S. would be all but assured of moving on to Russia next summer, but anything less creates any number of dicey scenarios.

Entering the final two qualifying matches, the U.S. sits fourth among the final six teams alive in the CONCACAF region. First-place Mexico already clinched its spot in Russia and second-place Costa Rica is all but a lock to move on. Panama enters Friday in third place — the final automatic qualifying spot for the region. The fourth-place nation would move on to a home-and-home playoff against either Australia or Syria for a World Cup berth.

Barring extraordinary results over the next few days, Panama, the U.S. and Honduras are essentially vying for the third and final automatic spot.

World Cup qualifying standings — CONCACAF

Team	W	L	D	GD	Pts
Mexico	5	0	3	+8	18
Costa Rica	4	1	3	+7	15
Panama	2	2	4	+2	10
United States	2	3	3	+1	9
Honduras	2	3	3	-7	9
Trinidad and Tobago	1	7	0	-11	3

USMNT World Cup qualifying scenarios

First things first: The U.S. will not be able to qualify automatically for Russia if it loses to Panama on Friday, as it would then be unable to make up enough ground against Panama or Costa Rica on Tuesday to break through.

A draw against Panama would keep the USMNT's hopes alive, but the U.S. would then need to beat Trinidad and Tobago, have Panama either lose to or draw Costa Rica, and have Honduras pick up no more than a win and a draw in its final two games against Costa Rica and Mexico.