Premier League MD22: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

The title race is starting to take shape after 22 matches, though the Premier League continues to throw up twists and turns all over the table.

Liverpool snatched a dramatic win over Brentford to extend their lead at the top to six points, helped by Arsenal dropping points in a draw with Aston Villa later on Saturday.

Nottingham Forest held on to avoid a shock result against Southampton, with their 3-2 win on Sunday moving them level on points with Mikel Arteta's side.

Towards the bottom, Everton got their first win under David Moyes, beating Tottenham, while Manchester United's recent revival stalled with defeat to Brighton.

Meanwhile, the pressure mounted on Ipswich Town, who were thrashed 6-0 by Manchester City, prompting Pep Guardiola to claim his side "are back", as the Tractor Boys remained in the relegation zone.

13 - Today is the 13th time Manchester City have scored 6+ goals in a Premier League game under Pep Guardiola, as many times as Arsène Wenger's Arsenal did so, with only Alex Ferguson's Manchester United (14) netting 6+ on more occasions in the competition. Cricket. pic.twitter.com/8s7ytIKJyT

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) January 19, 2025

But which teams were lucky to get the points, and who can consider themselves unfortunate? Here, we use Opta data to find out.

Lucky winners: Liverpool

Much had been made about Liverpool's form in 2025 heading into their game against Brentford after enduring back-to-back Premier League draws, as well as losing their EFL Cup semi-final first leg against Tottenham.

And, for much of their game against Brentford, it looked like those conversations would continue, at least until the 91st minute, that is.

Darwin Nunez came off the bench in the 65th minute but ensured the Reds would head back to Merseyside with three points as he scored twice in stoppage time to snatch a 2-0 win and break Brentford hearts.

Based on the stats, it may not look like Liverpool should be classed as "lucky". They had 37 shots while accumulating 3.43 expected goals (xG) – more than any other team over the weekend – compared to Brentford's 0.72, but the game was a much tighter affair than those make it look.

Liverpool's shot tally is their joint-most in a Premier League game on record (since 2003-04), also doing so against Everton in April 2016. However, they failed to score with any of their first 35 shots in the game before Nunez's late brace.

Brentford defended staunchly and created problems of their own at the other end, but could not hold out for another huge result, having fought back against Manchester City last Tuesday.

They do say champions always find a way to win, and Liverpool certainly kept their title bid on track with their victory at the Gtech Community Stadium.

Lucky winners: Aston Villa

Aston Villa did not win, but they did deal Arsenal a blow in the title race for the second time in recent memory, after coming from behind to earn a 2-2 draw at the Emirates.

The Villans rallied in the second half, with two goals in eight minutes from Youri Tielemans, who also struck the post moments later, and Ollie Watkins denying Arsenal all three points.

In fact, they avoided defeat in a Premier League away game in which they trailed by two or more goals for the first time since November 2013 (2-2 vs West Brom), ending a run of 52 straight defeats.

However, Villa were poor in the first half, managing just three shots (one on target) worth 0.12 xG. Their second-half improvement is obviously what clinched it though, as they created better chances (0.92 xG) and scored with two of their five attempts.

They dug in late on, finishing with less possession (34%), touches in the opposition box (14 to Arsenal's 37) and final third entries (26 to 82), but they will not care as they kept in touching distance of the top four with a valuable point against Unai Emery's old side.

Unlucky losers: Arsenal

I suppose it goes without saying that if Villa were lucky winners (despite the scoreline), Arsenal fall into the opposite category.

And there are some fans who will feel like they walked away from the Emirates with a loss on Saturday after Kai Havertz saw what he thought was the winning goal chalked off for a (albeit inadvertent) handball in the build-up.

The Gunners created 1.33 xG throughout the game, bettering Villa's 1.04, and had 18 attempts, with six of those on target as they tried to find a way past former goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez.

But as has been the case before this season, they could not make their dominance count, and they have now dropped 12 points from winning position in the Premier League this term, their most since 2019-20 (21).

A shot conversion rate of 11.11% is perhaps the most damning stat for Arteta's side, who now face an even tougher test to catch Liverpool, who still have a game in hand.