The Numbers Game: Will Slot's Liverpool prolong Man City's dreadful run?

Manchester City's season is swiftly getting away from them.

Pep Guardiola's team were on course to get back on track when they led Feyenoord 3-0 in the Champions League on Tuesday. Yet it finished 3-3 and the Premier League champions' winless run extended to six matches across all competitions.

City became the first team in Champions League history to lead a match by three goals as late as the 75th minute and fail to go on to win.

They failed to win a match in which they led by three goals for the first time in all competitions since May 1989 against Bournemouth in the second tier (3-3), while for the first time in his managerial career, Guardiola saw a team of his fail to win a match in which they were leading by three goals.

City have also lost their last three Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 47 combined (W35 D9). They last lost four consecutive league games between April-August 2008.

According to the Opta supercomputer, they now have just a 12.6% chance of retaining the title.

So, a trip to Anfield to face Arne Slot's rampant Liverpool – who are eight points clear at the top of the Premier League and beat Real Madrid 2-0 in the Champions League on Wednesday – is hardly the match Guardiola would have wanted as he looks to get City back on course.

Here, we preview a huge clash.

What's expected?

Perhaps not since Liverpool's title-winning campaign in 2019-20 has there been such a gulf in form between these two rivals. A win for Liverpool could see them go 11 points clear – in Premier League history, only three teams have overcome a deficit of more than 11 points to go on and win the title (Manchester United in 1992-93 and 1995-96, and Arsenal in 1997-98).

As it stands, Liverpool have a 74.8% chance of winning the title.

The onus really is on City, then, to snap their dismal run of form, but Opta's supercomputer makes Liverpool the favourites, with a 45.3% win likelihood. City came out on top in 29.9% of the data-led simulations, while there is a 24.8% chance of a draw.

The Citizens have won just one of their last 21 Premier League away games against Liverpool (D7 L13), beating them 4-1 in February 2021. They have not won at Anfield with fans in attendance since May 2003 (2-1).

Liverpool have won just one of their last nine Premier League games against City (D5 L3), a 1-0 home victory in October 2022.

The away side has won just six of the 54 Premier League meetings between Liverpool and City, the lowest percentage of any fixture to be played more than 30 times in the competition (11%).

Slot's machine keeps paying out

Maybe only in his wildest dreams would Slot have hoped for such a strong start to his Liverpool tenure, especially given the size of the shoes he had to fill at Anfield.

5 - Liverpool are just the fifth side to win their opening five games of UEFA Champions League campaign and concede no more than one goal in the process, after Milan (92-93), Juventus (04-05), Atlético Madrid (16-17) and PSG (17-18). Touch. pic.twitter.com/x6BhZDOUGx

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) November 27, 2024

The Guardiola-Jurgen Klopp rivalry lit up English football for the last eight years, but Slot has swiftly made this Liverpool team his own.

This will be Slot's first meeting with both Manchester City and their manager Guardiola. None of Liverpool's last six managers have lost their first league meeting with England’s reigning champions (W4 D2), since Roy Evans' 1-0 loss to Manchester United in 1993-94.

Liverpool's only Premier League defeat so far this season was a 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest at Anfield. They have won seven of their eight league games since (D1), scoring at least twice in seven of those games.

No manager in Premier League history has reached 10 wins in fewer matches from the start of their career in the competition than Slot (12 games, level with Guus Hiddink and Carlo Ancelotti).

In contrast to the rampant attacking of the Klopp era, Liverpool's foundations have been built on a strong defence. They have kept more clean sheets (six) than any other team in the top flight this term, and conceded just eight goals (at least four fewer than any other side and nine fewer than Manchester City). Their 10.75 expected goals against (xGA) is also the lowest total in the competition.

Not that the Reds' attack hasn't been on point. Tottenham (27) are the only team to score more goals than Liverpool (24) in the Premier League in 2024-25, while Slot's side have the third-highest xG (23.6) and have had the highest number of big chances (defined by Opta as an opportunity from which a player would reasonably be expected to score), with 48.

The big question is how Slot's possession-based system will match up against City's. But it is all clicking for the Dutchman so far.

The boys with the blues

City have not lost four Premier League games in a row within a single season since 2007 when they suffered five consecutive losses to Blackburn Rovers, Reading, Portsmouth, Wigan Athletic and Chelsea between January and March.

But a defeat at Anfield would see them match that unwanted slice of history.

5 - Manchester City haven't lost four Premier League games in a row within a single season since 2007 when they suffered five consecutive losses to Blackburn, Reading, Portsmouth, Wigan and Chelsea between January and March. Headscratching. pic.twitter.com/ktcijn1eLA

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) November 28, 2024

In his managerial career, Guardiola has only lost more games against Tottenham (nine) than he has against Liverpool (eight).

He has won just six of his 22 meetings with the Reds (27%), his lowest win rate against any side he has faced more than five times in all competitions.

City have won five of their last six Premier League games against sides starting the day top of the table (D1). However, their last such defeat was a 3-1 loss against Liverpool at Anfield in November 2019, with the Reds going on to win the title that season.

Defensively, City have been all over the place. Their 15.9 xGA means they are averaging 1.3 xGA per game, whereas last season in the Premier League, they finished with 35.9 xGA (an average of 0.9 per match).

Erling Haaland, for all his talent, has squandered some big chances, albeit he is still performing slightly above his xG (12 goals from 11.9 xG). City are underperforming their xG as a team by 2.4 (22 goals from 24.4 xG).

Problems in both boxes, then, for Guardiola to solve.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Liverpool - Mohamed Salah

Salah netted twice to help Liverpool to a 3-2 comeback win over Southampton last week and has made headlines this week when he claimed after that victory at St Mary's that he was yet to be offered any sort of contract by the club – his current deal expires at the end of the season.

If this is to be Salah's last campaign at Liverpool, he is doing his very best to go out on a high note. As well as having the most goals and assists combined in the Premier League this season (16), Salah’s goal involvements have also been worth a league-high 17 points to Liverpool this term.

Salah has scored seven times in the league against Manchester City for Liverpool, while he needs just two more top-flight goals at Anfield to bring up his 100th for the Reds at their home ground.

Manchester City - Ilkay Gundogan

Three of Gundogan’s four Premier League goals against Liverpool have come at Anfield, with no City player scoring more away against the Reds in the competition’s history (Nicolas Anelka also three).

His next appearance will be his 200th in the Premier League, while if Manchester City win here, he would be the third player to win as many as 150 of his first 200 appearances in the competition (currently 149 – Bernardo Silva won 153 and Ederson 151 of first 200).

Gundogan would be only the third German player to hit the landmark of 200 Premier League games after Robert Huth (322), Dietmar Hamann (268) and Pascal Gross (228).