The Champions League returns for the penultimate round of matches, with a lot hinging on the clash between Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City at the Parc des Princes.

When the draw took place, many would have predicted this would be a top-of-the-table clash in the competition. The reality is a far cry from that, with both teams flirting with an early exit.

While neither of their fates can be confirmed on Wednesday, both teams know that anything less than a win will put them in jeopardy of potentially exiting the competition at the league stage.

City look to be back to their old selves in the new year, coming into this game high on confidence after a 6-0 thrashing of Ipswich Town that extended their unbeaten run to six matches in all competitions.

PSG, meanwhile, have looked formidable of late as well - they have not lost any of their last eight.

But who will come out on top? Using Opta data, we delve into the key insights ahead of Wednesday's all-important clash.

What's expected?

PSG have only won one of their seven matches against City in European competition (D2 L4). It is their lowest win percentage against a single opponent among teams they have faced more than five times in Europe (14%).

However, they did win their last home match against City in the Champions League, despite attempting just six shots (2-0 in September 2021). This remains the fewest shots they have had on record (since 2003-04) in a home match in the competition.

The Opta supercomputer predicts this will be a tight game though, with a 24.3% chance of it ending in a draw – a result that, at this stage, would be no good to either team.

PSG are given a slight edge with 39.2% and will have the home fans behind them at the Parc des Princes, but City are still in with a chance as they come out on top in 36.5% of the simulations.

There is nothing to call between the two managers either. This will be the fifth meeting between Luis Enrique and Pep Guardiola, with both winning two games each in the Champions League.

However, along with Jurgen Klopp (two), Luis Enrique is one of only two managers to have beaten Guardiola by three or more goals on multiple occasions (3-0 in May 2015 and 4-0 in October 2016, both in charge of Barcelona).

Can PSG stage a comeback?

So far, it has been a Champions League campaign to forget for PSG, and if they do not turn things around in the final two matches, they will want to scrub it from their memories altogether.

Luis Enrique's side are currently 25th in the league, just one point outside the playoff places, though given the tight nature of the competition, a win could rocket them up the table.

PSG may have won their opening match against Girona, but four games without a win on the bounce saw them plummet down the standings before they steadied the ship somewhat.

Their 3-0 win over RB Salzburg last time out was their first victory on the road in the Champions League this term, and also the first time they have scored away from home in the competition since beating Barcelona 4-1 in April.

That victory in Austria also saw them register as many wins and goals as they had across their previous seven games in the Champions League (W1 D2 L4). They last won consecutive games in the competition last February when they beat Real Sociedad home and away in the last 16.

It was a much-needed goalscoring boost as it doubled PSG's tally from the first five games combined, while Goncalo Ramos and Desire Doue will have taken confidence after netting their first Champions League goals for PSG.

It could be PSG's backline that prove the difference on Wednesday though, especially facing off against a once again free-flowing City attack that are currently scoring for fun, netting 20 goals in their last four games.

To do so, they will need to turn around their home record. They have lost three of their last five such matches in the Champions League (W1 D1), as many as in their previous 17 games at the Parc des Princes (W11 D3), while Luis Enrique is the only PSG manager to lose as many as three home games in the competition.

New year, new City

The last time City played in the Champions League, they were in the midst of their worst run of form under Guardiola, with a 2-0 loss to Juventus in mid-December compounding their misery.

City would go on to lose two more games after that, but since a 2-0 win over Leicester City in the Premier League at the end of December, they look to have found their groove again.

It is no secret that their struggles stemmed from being unable to call on Rodri, who remains sidelined with an ACL injury. Since the 2019-20 season, the Citizens have lost just three out of 49 Champions League matches with the Spaniard in the team (6%, W35 D11), compared to four defeats in 14 games without him (29%, W7 D3).

City seem to have found their new balance without him though, with help from Kevin De Bruyne and Phil Foden, who have proven instrumental in their last few Premier League games.

Now, Guardiola will be looking to prove that on the European stage, especially after failing to win three consecutive matches in the group/league phase of the Champions League for the first time in his managerial career (D1 L2).

City's away form in the competition of late has proved worrying as they have lost their last two Champions League matches on the road, only one fewer than they had lost in their previous 28 such games (W16 D9 L3).

Only once have they lost more on the bounce, doing so between November 2011 and December 2012 under Roberto Mancini (four), another unwanted record Guardiola will be hoping to avoid.

As touched on, City could land themselves in trouble in the Champions League if they fail to win in Paris – they are 22nd in the league table, one point above PSG – but could be further down the standings by kick-off depending on Tuesday's results.

City will still feel they have an outside chance of getting their hands on the trophy, especially with their season on the up, but that resurgence has to start on Wednesday.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Paris Saint-Germain – Achraf Hakimi

Only three players have created more chances in this season's Champions League than Hakimi (16).

The Moroccan assisted two of their three goals against Salzburg on MD6 having only registered three assists in his first 32 games in the competition for the French side.

Manchester City – Erling Haaland

In his first 11 away Champions League appearances, Haaland scored 11 goals from 33 shots (33% conversion).

However, across his last 11 away games, the Norwegian has scored just four times, with his conversion rate dipping to 10% (four goals from 41 shots).