The Numbers Game: Can Tottenham get back on track against Chelsea?

When Brennan Johnson tucked in Tottenham's fourth in their demolition of Manchester City a couple of weeks ago, few would have expected the pressure would soon be mounting on Ange Postecoglou.

Yet after Thursday's tame performance in a 1-0 defeat at Bournemouth, the Australian faced jeers from a section of the travelling Spurs fans at the Vitality Stadium.

Spurs are now winless in their last three games in all competitions, having drawn against Roma in the Europa League and then Fulham in the Premier League. Before that stunning win at Man City, Tottenham also slipped to a 2-1 home loss to Ipswich Town.

Tottenham are back at home on Sunday, but they will go up against one of the Premier League's form teams.

Enzo Maresca declared that "Chelsea are back" after a 5-1 win at bottom-of-the-league Southampton moved the Blues into second on Wednesday, seven points behind leaders Liverpool.

Will Chelsea make it four top-flight wins on the spin, or can Spurs get back on track?

7 - In their 14 Premier League games this season, Tottenham have averaged 2.3 pts/game in their lowest seven for possession (16 points), compared to 0.6 pts/game in their highest seven for possession (4 points). Style. pic.twitter.com/IbAMLXlIJ5

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) December 6, 2024

What's expected?

Chelsea are made the favourites by the Opta supercomputer, though the model expects a hard-fought encounter.

The Blues are given a win probability of 43.2%, while Tottenham came out on top in 32.7% of the data-led simulations. There is a 24.1% chance of a draw.

Tottenham have won just one of their last 11 Premier League games against Chelsea (D2 L8), picking up a 2-0 home win in February 2023.

After a run of just two wins in 13 Premier League away games against Tottenham between 2006 and 2018 (D5 L6), Chelsea have won four of their last five visits to Spurs (L1).

Spurs were unbeaten in their first four Premier League London derbies under Postecoglou (W2 D2), but have lost seven of their last 13 (W4 D2). Five of their six London derby wins under the former Celtic boss have been at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, however.

Chelsea have won 35 Premier League games and scored 116 Premier League goals against Tottenham, more than they have against any other opponent. It’s also the most goals Spurs have conceded against a side, while they have only lost more times to Manchester United (39).

The Blues have also won five of their seven games at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in all competitions (D1 L1), the most wins any visiting side has picked up at the ground since Spurs moved there in 2019.

Hot and cold

Spurs' inconsistency this season is why they are 10th heading into the weekend. Despite the unrest from some fans, Postecoglou will surely point to the fact that they are only three points off fifth-place Brighton.

Postecoglou did perhaps not help himself by insisting he always wins a trophy in his second season at a club, but Spurs are still in the EFL Cup and are well placed in the Europa League. A top-four finish in the Premier League is unlikely but is far from out of sight.

Only two teams - Chelsea (31) and Liverpool (29) - have scored more Premier League goals than Spurs this season, but their issues have come at the other end of the pitch, by and large.

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— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) December 6, 2024

Tottenham have kept just one clean sheet in their last 22 Premier League home games (4-0 vs Everton this season), a run which started with a 4-1 loss against Chelsea last November. Indeed, since the start of November 2023, no side currently in England’s top four tiers have recorded fewer home league shutouts than Spurs.

Spurs have lost seven of their last 11 Premier League away games (W3 D1), while they have not won on the road when conceding first in the competition since a 5-2 win at Burnley in September 2023 (D2 L8 since).

Postecoglou will likely be glad to be back on home turf this time out. That being said, they have taken just one point from their last two top-flight matches at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

But if the fans can get behind them, then Spurs have a great weapon in their arsenal: their pressing.

Spurs have forced 142 high turnovers in the league this term, more than any other team. However, only two of those have resulted in a goal.

Maresca's magic touch

In all competitions, Chelsea have scored 57 goals in 22 games this season, which is already seven more than they scored in 2022-23 (50 in 50 games). Their current goals-per-game ratio of 2.6 is their best in a single season in their entire history.

Goals have come from across their squad, too. The Blues have had 10 different goalscorers in the top tier.

Cole Palmer leads the way with nine, while the in-form Nicolas Jackson has eight. Noni Madueke has netted five times and Enzo Fernandez, who has also proved a creative force, providing six assists in his last five league games, has scored twice.

Meanwhile, only Erling Haaland (17) and Mohamed Salah (15) have scored more goals in all competitions among Premier League players this season than Christopher Nkunku (12) – the Frenchman has now found the net in eight of his last nine starts, scoring 11 times.

Chelsea are not only the league's leading scorers, they have also created the highest expected goals (xG) total at 29.8.

They have had 213 shots, the fifth-highest tally in the competition. Their xG per shot comes out at 0.13, which means that, on average, each of their attempts has a 13% chance of going in.

Only Liverpool (57) have had more big chances than the Blues (51), meanwhile, and given they are going up against such a fragile defence, Maresca's attackers should be licking their lips.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Tottenham - Brennan Johnson

Johnson has scored three goals across his last five home appearances in the Premier League, more than across his previous 24 outings at home in the competition for Spurs and Nottingham Forest (two goals).

Chelsea - Nicolas Jackson

Jackson has scored four goals in his two Premier League games against Spurs, netting a hat-trick in the corresponding fixture last season.