The Numbers Game: Bournemouth continue European fight against struggling Man Utd

The race for the Champions League places is tight, but Bournemouth still have an outside chance of booking a place in one of the other European competitions as they lead the rest of the chasing pack.

Meanwhile, United sit in the bottom half of the table, with little to shout about in the Premier League.

However, they do have one bright spark left in their season, with a Europa League semi-final against Athletic Bilbao on the horizon – a tie that Ruben Amorim will likely already have one eye on.

No matter what, United look consigned to their lowest-ever Premier League finish and points tally, as they sit 14th with 38 points.

If they want to salvage some pride in the final five games, they need to rack up points fast, but Bournemouth have the better of their recent meetings, meaning United have work to do if they want to avoid a third consecutive defeat in the top flight.

Using Opta data, we delve into the key insights ahead of Sunday's clash at the Vitality Stadium.

Bournemouth have not shied away in their meetings with United over the last few seasons, and given their advantage over them in the table as well, they are expected to come out on top.

The Cherries are unbeaten in their last three Premier League games against United (W2 D1), including a comprehensive 3-0 victory at Old Trafford in December.

In fact, they have picked up as many points in these games (seven) as they had in their first 12 against the Red Devils (W2 D1 L9).

Another win on Sunday would see them become the sixth different side to complete the league double over United this term, the most in a single campaign since 1933-34 (six), and most in a top-flight season since 1930-31 (nine).

And United have struggled to contain Bournemouth's attacking power recently. They have conceded eight goals in their last three Premier League games against them, as many as they had in their previous 11 against the Cherries.

So, the Opta supercomputer gives Bournemouth a 54.9% chance of taking all three points at the Vitality on Sunday.

United, meanwhile, have just a 22.6% chance of coming out on top, meaning it is pretty much as likely that this match will be a draw (22.5%).

The gulf between these teams this season has been staggering, and the model's forecast reflects that.

With the title race and relegation battle pretty much done and dusted before the end of April, the race for European football is set to make for an exciting finish to the season.

A place in Europe next season would be the cherry on the cake for Andoni Iraola's men, who have already hit new heights this campaign.

Their frustrating 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace last weekend saw them reach 49 points in the Premier League this season, their highest ever tally in a campaign in the competition, surpassing their 48 in 2023-24.

They could become the 40th different side to achieve a 50+ point season in the competition, with the last team to reach that tally for the first time being Brentford in 2022-23 (59).

Iraola felt Bournemouth should have won that match against 10-man Palace, though. They had 15 shots, with four of those on target. However, while they did not let the Eagles have a single effort on target, their attempts were only worth 0,72 expected goals (xG).

Bournemouth have bounced back from their stumble in February and March, helped in part by their staunch defence in recent weeks.

They are looking to record three consecutive Premier League clean sheets for the first time since November 2019, with the third game back then being a 1-0 home win against United.

The Cherries' 1-0 win over Fulham in their last home game saw them end a run of four consecutive defeats on home soil, and Iraola will be hoping they can build on that result to stay ahead in the European race.

Things are looking fairly bleak for Amorim's side in the Premier League, as their 1-0 defeat to Wolves last time out was their 15th loss in the top-flight this season – their most ever in a single campaign in the competition.

Their profligacy was on show again during that game, as they managed 12 shots, worth 1.32 xG, but only hit the target with two of them.

Amorim came out in defence of Rasmus Hojlund after that match, with the striker managing just one shot in 70 minutes on the field, a sixth consecutive game without scoring, noting how the rest of the team were also struggling.

It has been a regular feature of their season, as they have failed to score in 13 different Premier League games this season, with only Leicester City (15) and Everton (14) doing so more.

United last failed to score in more league games in a single campaign in 1989-90 (16), a record they will be hoping to avoid by the end of the season.

Overall, they have managed just 36 goals in the Premier League this term, with Bruno Fernandes their top scorer with eight goals in the competition. Amad Diallo, who has not played since February, is second on that list with six.

Their haul has come from 439 shots, and 44.2 xG, meaning they have underperformed in front of goal, though those struggles were on show even before Amorim took over from Erik ten Hag.

Given their league position means they have little to play for in the top-flight, the Amorim may opt to keep his side fresh with one eye on that last-four clash, which is their last hope of salvaging their season.

United have won as many matches in the Europa League under Amorim (six wins in eight games) as they have in 22 Premier League matches under him (W6 D5 L11), another record he will be keen to improve.

No player has had more shots in the Premier League this season than Semenyo (116, level with Mohamed Salah).

Indeed, it is the most shots a Bournemouth player has ever had in a single top-flight campaign.

He has had at least 53 more shots than any of his team-mates and has also racked up the most efforts on target (37).

The winger has netted eight goals, his joint-best-ever return from a single campaign (level with his tally for the Cherries last season and 2021-22 with Bristol City), and Semenyo's displays this season have no doubt alerted the top clubs.

Only Cole Palmer (78) has created more chances in the Premier League this season than Fernandes (77).

The United captain also has nine assists this term, only reaching double figures in 2020-21 (12).

He did not play from the start against Wolves – it was the first time he has come off the bench in the Premier League since January 2022 – and with the Europa League semi-final just four days after this match, Amorim could well be cautious with his talisman yet again.