Manchester City v Liverpool: Could Guardiola beat Klopp's champions without a striker?

Such circumstances are certainly not ideal, and they have befallen Pep Guardiola as Manchester City prepare to host Liverpool in a clash of the two Premier League title favourites at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday.

Sergio Aguero will not be ready to return from the hamstring injury that has kept him out of action since the 1-1 draw with West Ham two weeks ago, while Gabriel Jesus only came back from six weeks out on Tuesday – though he did manage to score in his 21 minutes on the pitch during a 3-0 victory over Olympiacos in the Champions League.

There is every chance Jesus could be moved into the starting line-up, but Guardiola may be unwilling to take a risk with no let-up in the schedule after an international break that the 23-year-old will spend with the Brazil squad.

Guardiola may simply decide to keep using Ferran Torres, who typically plays as a winger, through the middle.

Torres has been deployed there since Aguero's injury and has proved adept in the role. He has scored two goals in the three matches he has started as a striker, though he has only converted 50 per cent of his big chances after missing two in the 1-0 victory over Sheffield United last week.

Playing him in a central role has not entirely stymied his creativity either, with the Spaniard supplying five key passes despite the change of position. His touches in the opposition box per 90 minutes has remained steady as well at around seven.

Three in a row... Keep the good times rolling! #ChampionsLeague @ManCity @ChampionsLeague pic.twitter.com/OOWQ27UF3c

— Ferran Torres (@FerranTorres20) November 3, 2020

City typically dominate possession in Premier League matches, but they can expect Liverpool to have a greater share of the ball than most of their opponents do.

Since the start of last season, Raheem Sterling has averaged 3.1 shots and 0.5 goals per 90 minutes against Premier League opponents that had less than 40 per cent possession.

However, when the opposition have enjoyed more than that amount, his shots and goals per game rise to 3.3 and 1.0 respectively.

While his goals per game rate doubles against teams that have over 40 per cent of possession, Sterling's expected goals (xG) average only narrowly increases from 0.5 to 0.6, suggesting he has just had better days against opponents that see more of the ball.

Playing Sterling or Torres as a central striker could perhaps therefore help Guardiola get the better of Klopp, someone he typically struggles against more than his other contemporaries.

The German has claimed more victories over Guardiola than any other manager, triumphing in eight of their previous 19 encounters for a win rate of 37 per cent.

Jose Mourinho (five) is the only other coach to have beaten the Catalan on more than three occasions.

5 - The top five Premier League managers of the 2010s, based on points per game (50+ matches):Josep Guardiola - 2.37Alex Ferguson - 2.27Jürgen Klopp - 2.15Antonio Conte - 2.14Roberto Mancini - 2.04Gaffers.#Opta2010s pic.twitter.com/0T7J6K85O0

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) December 30, 2019

It will likely take more than just playing a winger as a striker for City to get the better of Liverpool, though.

City are only averaging two shots per game fewer than they have over the course of the previous four Premier League seasons combined, but their shot conversion rate is down at 9.4 – comfortably their worst percentage of the Guardiola era. Their previous low is 12.6 and was set in Guardiola's first season at the helm, while in 2017-18 they were converting 15.9 per cent of their shots.

Part of the reason for this could be that City are taking lower quality shots this season. Their average xG per shot is 0.08, with Wolves (0.07) and West Brom (0.05) the only teams in the league possessing a lower score.

There is no guarantee they will find life easier against Liverpool this season, even with Joe Gomez being the only regular first-team centre-back available to Jurgen Klopp amid injuries to Virgil van Dijk, Joel Matip and Fabinho.

The Reds have maintained the same intensity when defending as they showed last season; they have increased their average high turnovers per game from 6.6 to 9.4, narrowly raised the number of pressed sequences – which is when the opposition have three or fewer passes in a sequence that stops within 40 metres of their own goal – from 17.8 to 18.7 and continued to limit opponents to 10 passes per defensive action.